With the race essentially even although clearly moving in the Democrats direction, the Harris Walz 2024 campaign is still correctly claiming underdog status, but it is undeniable that the campaign is executing a winning strategy nearly flawlessly. Still, Kamala Harris trails Donald Trump when voters are asked which candidate they trust more on the economy in public opinion polls. This should be scary for Democrats because Hillary Clinton trailed Trump throughout 2016 on the same measure.
In just a few months the campaign has developed and executed an excellent strategy for winning the election as well as a pretty good set of economic policies and talking points, but the economic message is not at the same level as, and somewhat out of synch with the overall strategy to unite a diverse coalition of support that runs from the most progressive voters in the base through the middle of the political spectrum. It would take the addition of fewer than 10 words to strengthen the economic message and bring it more in line with the overall campaign strategy that has two principal elements:
1) winning the culture war (e.g. Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, Billie Elish) to energize the younger, more diverse, progressive base, while
2) reaching out to those moderate Democratic, Republican, and independent voters that view Trump negatively.
The first word is “Growth.”
Kamala Haris has been championing her vision of an “opportunity economy,” but a “growth and opportunity economy” would connect with more voters. In the real world, managing a complex economy from the White House requires balancing competing goals and aligning disparate interests. Policies must help businesses, workers, and customers without adding to deficits or harming the environment. Democrats know that all of this is easier when the economy is expanding and there are more economic benefits to go around. A growing economy creates more opportunity for more middle-class families to prosper, not pitting one group of workers against another but allowing all communities to move forward.
The opportunity economy frame tilts toward the base offering hope that the Harris/Walz economy will create ladders of success for younger voters, women, and people of color, to get good jobs, afford a first home, and form businesses to build family wealth. Adding growth to this frame does not diminish its appeal to the base, but it will speak to the moderate audiences, and older voters that are worried about having an economy that is expanding fast enough to allow individuals, businesses, and governments to pay our debts, while keeping our commitments to provide health and retirement benefits to older workers and retirees. America is well positioned for growth in the coming term due to the Biden/Harris bipartisan investments in innovation, education, infrastructure, and healthy communities, designed to help bring the jobs of the future to the middle of America.
Four additional words “We can do better.”
The Biden/Harris economic record is vastly superior to the Trump/Pence economic record, but voters continue to trust Trump over Harris on the economy and the Trump/Vance campaign is running ads tying Kamala Harris to Bidenomics and the rising cost of breakfast staples. We were critical of Biden for failing to solve the disconnect between his economic record and the public’s appreciation of his record. Biden tried to convince voters that he had done a good job by quoting statistics, especially the number of jobs the economy created. As champions of the underdogs and groups facing the greatest economic challenges, Democrats are always in a better position as challengers pointing out the economy’s weaknesses and the people who are struggling or experiencing economic pain, than when they are incumbents trying to talk up the economy’s strengths.
Vice President Harris has an opportunity to take credit for the best aspects of the Biden/Harris economy, while still identifying with the economic pain and frustration of individuals and groups who do not feel the economy is providing enough security and support for their lives and aspirations. Harris has the ability to do something Biden was not able to do and connect with the voters who are struggling in this economy and credibly say, “I see you.” If you are:
· A recent college graduate with student loan debt,
· A high school graduate trying to get a job that’s better than retail or food service,
· A young person struggling to pay your rent,
· A family of renters worried that home prices are rising out of reach,
· A manufacturer worried about labor and material costs,
· A small business facing competition at home and abroad,
· Etcetera, etcetara, etcetara.
… I see you and I know we can do better. Of course, this is all empty rhetoric if there are not policies to help people in these categories, but the Harris/Walz campaign has a lot of policies, and more are being added every day. What is needed is an economic message that is better than economic statistics and offers Harris a break with the underappreciated Biden economy. Of course, Harris can still quote the statistics followed by “but we have more work to do” as she and Biden have been doing for more than a year, but “we can do better” creates more distance from the Bidenomics status quo.
The sixth word is “Inequality.”
Increasing economic inequality is the core explanation for the negative views of the economy despite the improving statistics. Mathematically, extreme levels of income and wealth inequality mean most people are doing worse than average, and our national obsession with millionaires and billionaires means large numbers of voters agree that the economy is working best for the few at the top but not as well for the many at the bottom. This view long associated with Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and others on the progressive left, is now well understood across the political spectrum.
Kamala Harris’s economic plan has many elements that would address inequality Robinhood-style, including making the wealthy pay their fair share of taxes, offering help for lower income individuals and families by cutting middle-class taxes, increasing the child tax deduction, lowering the cost of childcare, and helping families afford a first-time home. Still the word “inequality” does not appear on the growing KamalaHarris.com issues page. We suspect this is because the campaign believes the word has greater appeal to the left than the middle of the electorate. But concerns about extreme and increasing levels economic inequality are shared across the political spectrum, especially when inequal growth rates, and differential levels of wealth between fast growing cities on the east and west coasts, and the lower growth rates, and economic stagnation in medium sized cities, small towns, and rural counties throughout the middle of America. The Harris/Walz economic plan has a lot to offer middle class families in the middle of America sitting around the kitchen table wondering how they are going to make ends meet.
Two more words “Investment” and “Infrastructure”
After Donald Trump won the 2016 election with appeals to struggling rural communities and attacks on big city elites living on the east and west coasts, Democrats have understood the geographical dimension of inequality and the need to invest in bringing technology jobs, and advanced manufacturing to the Midwest and Southern states. Throughout the Trump presidency, support for investments in infrastructure, technology, and worker training to bring high paying manufacturing and technology jobs to the middle of America garnered bipartisan support but “Infrastructure week” never achieved bipartisan legislation.
President Biden and Vice President Harris were able to unite Republicans and Democrats in passing historic bipartisan investments to bring high paying manufacturing and technology jobs, and new advanced computer chip manufacturing plants to Ohio, Arizona and Texas with more coming across the United States. Whenever Harris is talking about investments in infrastructure, she is connecting herself with the best parts of the Biden economic record and leveraging Biden’s instinct for appealing to the middle of the political spectrum and voters in the middle of America.
With the House Republicans still struggling to pass even the most basic budget legislation, a continuing resolution to keep the government open through the November election, Harris will have many chances to hit Republicans for failing to fund the Technology Hubs that America needs and Congress passed with broad bipartisan support in the CHIPS Act.
One more word, “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs”
We will conclude this post by repeating the advice we give to every Democratic party economic message crafter, and that is to understand that end benefit of a better economy is better jobs for each voter or a member of each voters’ family. Kamala Harris needs to talk more about jobs but not about the number of millions of jobs that have been created, but about the kinds and character of the jobs her Opportunity (and Growth) Economy will create in the future. The vision must be about more jobs, better jobs, better paying jobs, jobs with benefits, jobs with dignity, jobs with a career path, jobs, jobs, jobs. One good soundbite like this in a speech, and then put in television and on-line advertisements, would go a long way toward establishing Kamala Harris as the best candidate to manage the economy moving forward.
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